1529 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD will look to RBA speech this week and U.S. data for guidance, but could end week a little higher, says CBA FX Strategist Joseph Capurso. "Any strength from local influences is likely to be supported by temporary softness in U.S. economic data. We see mild upside risks to AUD this week." AUD/USD last 0.9142. ([email protected])
1515 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD valuations look stretched around current levels, with a slide below 0.9000 likely in coming weeks, says ANZ Strategist Amy Auster. "Current market dynamics - sideways equity markets, flattening commodity prices and higher interest rates - also support this view and the longer the ho-hum continues the more it looks like the bears." Risk to this vie is if RBA hikes by more than expected. Says if pair rises above 0.9320, further big gains expected. "Failure to close above that key level keeps us in the present frustrating range, and potentially trading back down toward the AUD/USD 0.8500/0.8600 level in the coming weeks." AUD/USD last at 0.9139. ([email protected])
1509 [Dow Jones] "The start of a new monetary tightening cycle in China poses the main risk to (base metals) price outlook heading into the second quarter," says Deutsche Bank. Tips policy tightening in China to include new loan quota of CNY7.5 trillion vs CNY9.6 trillion in 2009, two further reserve ratio hikes, an 81-bps increase in key rates, planned slowdown in central government capex growth from 120% last year to just 7% in 2010. Says these measures to cut fixed asset investment, industrial production growth by 5, 3 percentage points respectively. Adds, efforts by some local governments in China to engineer correction in property prices could also hurt sentiment for industrial commodities. LME metals steady in thin trade with LME 3-month copper at $7,445/ton, up $13 since Friday's kerb with 446 lots done. ([email protected])
1435 [Dow Jones] Shares in Australian agricultural companies likely undervalued, yet to reflect benefits of rainfall through eastern states which will lift earnings, says RBS Morgans. Moreover, further industry consolidation inevitable, offshore interest in Australian agribusinesses will remain, it says in sector analysis; says GrainCorp (GNC.AU) should benefit most, Incitec Pivot (IPL.AU) also to benefit from increased domestic demand for fertilizer, while Nufarm (NUF.AU) should post strong farm chemical sales; says merchants will benefit from rain, including AWB (AWB.AU), Elders (ELD.AU), RuralCo (RHL.AU); says local farm companies need to consolidate to gain greater geographic diversity, more widespread service offering. Smaller companies including Ridley (RIC.AU), RHL, Warrnambool Cheese (WCB.AU), Maryborough Sugar Factory (MSF.AU), mightn't be around in current form in coming years due to takeovers, RBS says. ([email protected])
1353 [Dow Jones] Investors don't think Arrow Energy's (AOE.AU) international assets are worth what Arrow says is average analyst valuation of about 55 cents/share, with the company declining to reveal its internal valuation. When added to A$4.70/share cash offer from Shell (RDSB.LN), PetroChina (PTR) for Australian assets, total deal value attributed to Arrow is A$5.25/share. Arrow shares, however, down 3.4% at A$5.11, meaning investors valuing offshore assets at 41 cents. Size of sweetened cash bid for Arrow a little disappointing but CEO Nick Davies tells reporters he's reasonably confident deal will be approved, given cost, funding, LNG demand risks associated with going it alone. Largest shareholder New Hope's (NHC.AU) decision will be key and it says it will reveal its intentions tomorrow. New Hope and Arrow's directors, executives hold about 20% of Arrow combined and Shell, PetroChina bid has 75% minimum acceptance level by voting shares. ([email protected])
1347 [Dow Jones] Spot gold slightly lower at $1,106.40/oz, down $1.30 vs NY close, prices still within recent range, but gold's selloff overnight Friday on stronger USD disappointing since gold was readying to break out of range to target $1,160, says HK-based trader. "Many people got burnt, and there were quite a few disappointed longs that liquidated," says trader. Says gold running out of steam points to "people sitting on their hands for some time" concerned about gold's "whippiness" within its range. Adds U.S. healthcare bill making its way through legislative process, approval will likely see a negative knee-jerk reaction on dollar, but exact implications not clear at this stage. ([email protected])
1342 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 down 0.8% at 4834.6, pressuring 3-day low of 4827.8 struck in early trading, after bouncing to 4858.8. Remains heavy after 0.5% fall in S&P 500, particularly with S&P 500 futures down 0.6% in Asian trading. Initial buying support near 4840.1 is being eaten away. Focus remains on vote on President Obama's U.S. health care reform bill before U.S. house of representatives--some traders expect successful passage to ease uncertainty in financial markets. But despite a lack of volume or decisive movement in S&P/ASX 200 today, some cracks are appearing in charts of major stocks including BHP Billiton (BHP.AU), Rio Tinto (RIO.AU) and Commonwealth Bank (CBA.AU). Traders identify potential double-top patterns on BHP and RIO, which could be triggered by respective daily closes below A$52.56 and A$75.06. CBA looks set to close the day well below support from recent rising wedge pattern, at A$56.50. According to Dow Jones technical analysis, CBA could easily test Feb. 15 low at A$51.01 in next few weeks. "It seems lots of charts on leaders are poised for a short-term pullback," says a senior trader. BHP last down 1.5% at A$42.55, Rio down 1.4% at A$75.14, CBA down 0.7% at A$55.80. ([email protected])
1338 [Dow Jones] LME copper higher in Asian trading on Shanghai Futures Exchange arbitrage related buying, says Hong Kong based trader. "The LME copper arbitrage is supportive again after a few trading days where the price ratio didn't work," says trader. SHFE/LME premium makes copper imports into China attractive. Adds China February metal import data "unsurprising," India central bank raising interest rates not directly important for base metals, but market reminded of potential China monetary changes in response to rising inflation. ([email protected])
1323 [Dow Jones] Export windfall means Australian budget deficit for year ending June 30, 2010 is likely to be "significantly better" than government's earlier forecast, RBS economists say; expect deficit of A$45 billion vs Treasury's A$57.7 billion deficit estimate. In fact, deficit may be even lower than RBS' view, though they're reluctant to lower estimate at this point given government still has more infrastructure spending to do. Also, though government unemployment benefit payments stabilized, yet to reflect sharp fall in unemployment levels shown in recent labor force data; number of people on welfare should start to decline from mid-2010. Further out, house trims deficit profile by about A$10 billion per year from 2010-11 to 2012-13 given stronger economy, bigger-than-expected tax windfall from greatly higher export prices; now expects budget to return to surplus 1-2 years ahead of government's estimate of 2015-16, though difficult to place much weight on forecasts that far out. But near term improvement tangible, "provides a powerful contrast with the fiscal situation in the major industrialized countries". ([email protected])
1257 [Dow Jones] China finalized February metal import data entirely in line with preliminary reports earlier this month, customs data show. China imported 220,530 tons of refined copper, 566,522 tons of copper concentrate in February; iron ore import data unchanged from preliminary data at 49.38 million tons, up 6% on January on unabated downstream demand. Refined copper imports +12% on-month due to lucrative arbitrage window between Shanghai Futures Exchange and London Metal Exchange early January, restocking before high-consumption season, analysts say. On-year decline of 18.6% unsurprising as China in February last year had just begun massive government stockpiling and enjoyed high operation rates at cable- and wire-makers on economic stimulus. Copper imports likely to rise in months ahead as "copper restocked before the Lunar New Year holiday (has been) mostly consumed," says Wang Zhouyi, analyst with Shanghai Cifco Futures.([email protected])作者: 塌撒 时间: 22-3-2010 14:31
好长。。。。能给个摘要么。。。。作者: jothfer 时间: 22-3-2010 14:41
